A 97% Favorite Lost at Goodwood and the Bookmakers Still Took a Hit

A Favorite Losing Bucks Conventional Wisdom

Najidi Storm started the Cleansing Service Group Novice Stakes at Goodwood at 1-33, implying roughly a 97% chance of winning. He finished second. The Harry Charlton-trained colt, a brother to 2019 St Leger winner Logician, was ridden by Lewis Edmunds and could not reel in Wreck It Ronnie, who made virtually all under Kieren Fox at 10-1.

It is the shortest-priced beaten favorite in the history of British horse-racing. The previous record was held jointly by Doom, turned over at 1-25 in 2023, and Royal Forest at the same price in 1948. Only three horses ran over the 10-furlong trip, and the third, Dream Of Albion, finished 76 lengths behind.

The winning horse is part-owned by Manchester City player Phil Foden alongside Gary Gillies, trainer Charlie Pike’s main backer, and is named after the footballer’s son. Foden missed the meeting for Champions League commitments. “I’d have been lying if I said going in that we thought we would win the race, but we were there to have a race and going off from the front was the best chance of doing that. Luckily, it worked out in our favour,” Pike told Racing TV after the event.

A losing favorite is usually a good day for a sportsbook – curiously enough, this one was not, because the price was short enough to push punters onto the other side of the race.

“We’ve witnessed the shortest-priced loser in British racing history, but that doesn’t mean it was a good result for the layers,” explained Brian O’Keeffe of Boyle Sports. “Najidi Storm might have been an ‘acca’ buster for a number of punters, but when one is put in that short, they’re often keen to look elsewhere. This time, their eye was drawn to the winner, Wreck It Ronnie, who was unfortunately the biggest liability in the race in our book.”

Flutter Entertainment-owned Paddy Power reported the same outcome. “Wreck It Ronnie sure lived up to his name with favorite-backers and the winner was actually a loser in the book with punters taking a chance against the very short-priced ‘jolly’,” spokesman Paul Binfield said.

Neither operator disclosed figures, which is standard. Sportsbooks rarely quantify a result, and the same pattern held when France’s World Cup exit wiped out the largest outright liability at Draftkings and Betmgm in July without any operator putting a number on what it saved.

The mechanic is specific to fixed-odds bookmaking. A sportsbook prices a market and carries the risk on both sides, so where the money lands determines whether a result helps or hurts. On an exchange or a prediction market, where users take positions against one another, and the venue collects fees on volume, an upset produces no equivalent swing.