Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $66,450 on Thursday, a 47% drawdown from its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025. As a result, many BTC holders are sitting on significant unrealized losses, underscoring the risks still facing Bitcoin investors at current levels.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s 47% drawdown from its $126,000 all-time high has left holders with nearly $600 billion in unrealized losses.
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Apparent demand and buying from US investors remain in deep contraction, suggesting broader market distribution.
44% of Bitcoin circulating supply now in the red
BTC/USD trades 24% below its yearly open of $87,500 after it closed 2025 in the red. The prolonged weakness has pushed a significant portion of its supply underwater.
As Bitcoin trades at $66,450 on Thursday, roughly 8.8 million BTC are held at a loss, representing $598.7 billion in unrealized losses, or more than 44% of the circulating supply, according to data from Glassnode.
Related: Bitcoin risks new lows as US dollar targets highest level since April 2025
The magnitude of this figure implies a “structural resemblance to conditions observed in Q2 2022,” Glassnode said in its latest Week On-chain newsletter.
Glassnode explained that the 2022 bear market provides a precedent when roughly 3 million BTC needed to be redistributed before the market could recover.
“Historically, resolving a supply overhang of this scale has required a meaningful redistribution of coins from loss-realizing holders to new buyers at lower prices.”
This mounting paper loss has eroded conviction, prompting long-term holders (LTH) to capitulate by selling below their cost basis.
LTH realized loss, a metric that measures the aggregate dollar value of Bitcoin sold at a loss by investors who have held BTC for more than 155 days, has risen to $200 million, “confirming active capitulation,” Glassnode said, adding:
“A meaningful cooldown toward levels below $25M per day would represent a more compelling signal of exhaustion in selling pressure, and a prerequisite for the base formation that historically precedes a sustainable bull market transition.”
BTC’s spot price is also below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETF holders, currently at $83,408, suggesting that these investors are increasingly under strain.
The risk-off sentiment is also seen in global Bitcoin investment products, which recorded more than $194 million in net outflows during the week ending March 27.
Bitcoin apparent demand contraction persists
Bitcoin’s apparent demand has stayed negative since mid-December 2025, as traders and investors continue to be risk-off amid BTC’s price weakness.
Capriole Investment’s Bitcoin Apparent Demand metric shows that the demand for Bitcoin is at -1,623 BTC on Thursday, and that sellers are in control.
The continued contraction in total apparent demand indicates persistent “selling from retail,” CryptoQuant said in its latest Weekly Crypto report, adding:
“The sustained demand contraction, now persisting since late November 2025, confirms that the broader market remains in distribution.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference in pricing between the BTC/USD pair on Coinbase and Binance, also remains in negative territory.
“The persistent negative premium indicates that US investors have not yet re-entered the market at scale,” CryptoQuant said, adding:
“This is consistent with the demand contraction seen across on-chain metrics.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin price risks new lows in the short term amid a strengthening US dollar.
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